The IVth Thomas Guggenheim Conference in the History of Economic Thought: Expectations: Theory and Applications in Historical Perspectives

The Thomas Guggenheim Program in the History of Economic Thought and The Economics Department at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

are honored to host:

The IVth Thomas Guggenheim Conference in the History of Economic Thought: Expectations: Theory and Applications in Historical Perspectives

Rotem Hall, Zlotowski Student Administration Building, December 18-19, 2017

10:30-12:30 A tour at Abraham’s Well + light lunch.
12:30-13:00 Gathering.
13:00-14:30 Session A: History of Expectation Models.
Chair: Arie Arnon, Ben-Gurion University.
Mauro Boianovsky (Universidade de Brasilia) 

Discussant: Warren Young

Between Pigou and Keynes: Champernowne on employment and expectations
Cristina Marcuzzo (Sapienza University of Rome)

Discussant: Robert Dimand

The Cambridge approach to expectations: The legacy of Marshall, Keynes and Kahn
Amos Witztum (London School of Economics)

Discussant: Dror Goldberg

Expectations in classical school: some lessons for today
14:30-14:45 Coffee break.
14:45-16:15 Session B: Growth, Expectations and political economy
Chair: Robert Dimand, Brock University
Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand (Université Nice Sophia Antipolis)

Discussant: Arie Arnon

Expectations and stability in the early growth models: a short history of growth economics
Warren Young (Bar-Ilan University)

Discussant: Michael Bordo

Expectations and Planning at the FED: 1939-1941
Alex Cukierman (Interdisciplinary Center)

Discussant: Assaf Razin

International evidence on professional interest rate forecasts: The impact of forecasting ability (joint with Thomas Lustenberger)
16:15-16:30 Coffee break.
16:30-18:15 At Senate Hall – Guggenheim Award and Lecture: Expectations: Theory and Applications in Historical Perspectives

Duncan Foley, New School for Social Research.

Chair: Jimmy Weinblatt, Former Rector of Ben-Gurion University.
19:00 Dinner at Dinner at Arabica


Day II: Tuesday, December 19th
9:00-10:30 Session C: Methods and Models: Controversies in historical perspective
Chair: Esther-Mirjam Sent, Radboud University.
Harald Hagemann (University of Hohenheim)

Discussant: James Forder

Inflation Expectations and the Phillips Curve: Then and Now
Robert Dimand (Brock University)

Discussant: Mauro Boianovsy

Expectations in Tobin’s Macroeconomics: The Fisherian and Keynesian Roots of Tobin’s q and Corridor of Stability
Sylvie Rivot (University of Strasbourg) 

Discussant: Muriel Dal Pont Legrand

Expectations Mismatches and the Great Depression
10:30-10:45 Coffee break
10:45-12:15 Session D: Expectations in Theory and Reality
Chair: Elise Brezis, Bar-Ilan University
Esther-Mirjam Sent (Radboud University)

Discussant: Sylvie Rivot

Sargent and Expectations
James Forder (University of Oxford)

Discussant: Harald Hagemann

Expectations’ in the debate over rules and discretion, 1948-1998
Assaf Razin (Cornell University, Tel Aviv University)

Discussant: Alex Cukierman

Expectations in Israel: triumphing hyperinflation and heading off depression
12:15-13:30 Lunch
13:30-15:00 Session E: Expectations in Economic History
Chair: Michael Bordo Rutgers University
Kim Oosterlinck (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

Discussant: Nathan Sussman

The War That Bond Markets Didn’t Perceive as Such (The Prices of South African Bonds During the Second Anglo-Boer War: An Extreme Case of Resilience) (with Marie van Gansbeke)
Dror Goldberg (The Open University of Israel)

Discussant: Amos Witztum

This time is NOT different: Expectations and Monetary Innovation in 1691 Massachusetts
Olivier Accominotti (London School of Economics)

Discussant: Nadav Ben-Zeev 

The Dawes Bonds, Selective Default and International Trade
15:00-15:15 Coffee break.
15:15-17:00 Panel Session: Expectations and economic history: explanations or fantasy?
Chair: Kim Oosterlinck
Participants: Michael Bordo, Rutgers University
Alex CukiermanInterdisciplinary Center.
Nathan Sussman, Hebrew University.

Organizing Committee:
Arie Arnon,
Karine van der Beek,
Warren Young,
Jimmy Weinblatt,

Administrative manager:
Michal Bauch,